April 2, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies
STORY LINK Pound, Euro and Dollar Forecast: What Analysts Expect on Liberation Day!
ING: Euro to Take a Larger Trade Hit, GBP/EUR To Move Above 1.2050
The Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate has made headway over the past 24 hours, but without breaking above the 1.2000 level and traded around 1.1965 on so-called “Liberation Day.”
ING expects trade developments will continue to dominate in the short term with President Trump’s tariff announcement due just after the New York close, although leaks may be seen earlier.
The bank expects that there will be relative Pound support on trade grounds with GBP/EUR strengthening to above 1.2050.
Although the UK is unlikely to escape tariffs, ING expects that President Trump will adopt a more confrontational stance against the EU and UK manufacturing exports also represent a smaller proportion of GDP.
On a slightly longer-term perspective, ING considers that there is room for successful UK negotiations to bring tariff levels down and there is also the possibility of a limited trade deal.
The bank expects that hopes for a preferential UK deal will trigger Pound gains, especially if UK equities can out-perform the Euro-Zone markets.
The ECB will also announce its latest interest rate decision on Thursday.
On a longer-term view, ING expects that expectations of steeper Bank of England rate cuts will drag the Pound lower again.
International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.
TAGS: Currency Predictions
