Gold spiked to record highs and Treasuries rallied as safe haven demand surged after Trump hinted at additional tariffs on all countries, rattling global risk sentiment.
Japan’s Nikkei plunged nearly 4%, while the dollar strengthened against commodity currencies and Bitcoin held steady near $82,500 despite the chaos.
Read on to see the major market moves and movers you may have missed in the last trading sessions:
Headlines:
- On Sunday, U.S. President Trump said this week’s tariffs will include “essentially all” countries, not just a smaller group of countries the markets had priced in
- On Sunday, U.S. President Trump threatened secondary tariffs on “all oil coming out of Russia” if he thinks Russia is holding up the ceasefire deal with Ukraine
- Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a U.S. recession from 20% to 35% in 12 months, expects three Fed rate cuts this year
- Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said he would communicate closely with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent against “excessive, disorderly currency movements”
- Japan industrial production for February: 2.5% m/m (2.0% forecast; -1.1% previous)
- China NBS manufacturing PMI for March: 50.5 (50.5 forecast; 50.2 previous); Non-manufacturing PMI at 50.8 (50.5 forecast; 50.4 previous)
- Australia TD-MI inflation gauge for March: 0.7% m/m (0.3% forecast; -0.2% previous)
- New Zealand ANZ business confidence for March: 57.5 (58.0 forecast; 58.4 previous)
- Germany inflation rate for March: 0.4% m/m (0.4% forecast; 0.5% previous); 2.3% y/y (2.4% forecast; 2.6% previous)
- German import prices grew at the fastest pace in more than two years in February
- U.K. net individual lending for February: 4.6B (5.2B forecast; 5.95B previous)
- U.S. Chicago PMI for March: 47.6 (43.0 forecast; 45.5 previous)
- U.S. Dallas Fed manufacturing index plummeted from -8.3 to -16.3 in March; Wages and selling prices “remained stable”
- FOMC voting member John Williams said keeping interest rates in place “for some time” would allow officials to study incoming data before deciding their next steps
- FOMC non-voting member Thomas Barkin said the uncertainty makes a case to “wait and see” how Trump’s tariff plans play out
- France’s Marine Le Pen convicted of graft, barred from running for public office for five years
- ECB President Lagarde favors analyzing data, discourages anticipation and forecasting “what’s going to happen next week, next month” amidst battle with high inflation
Broad Market Price Action:
Dollar Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay Chart by TradingView
There were tons of mid-tier data released on Monday, but the major assets mostly focused on Trump and his April 2 “Liberation Day” tariffs that may target “all countries” rather than select trading partners. Goldman Sachs bumped up its U.S. recession odds to 35%, pointing to slumping business confidence and the risk of stagflation—tariff-fueled inflation mixed with weaker growth.
U.S. stocks tumbled early but clawed their way back as investors tried to make sense of mixed messages from Fed officials. The S&P 500 and Dow closed in the green, while the Nasdaq ended just a bit lower. Over in Europe, there was no such rebound as major indices took a hit. But Asia felt the most pain, with Japan’s Nikkei diving nearly 4% on fears of auto export fallout.
Safe havens rallied as traders scrambled for cover amid rising global trade uncertainty. Gold soared to new record highs above $3,100, and Treasuries caught a strong bid, sending 10-year yields down to 4.19% before it eased back up to 4.21%.
Bitcoin showed surprising resilience, initially dropping but stabilizing around $82,500, suggesting some traders viewed digital assets as a hedge against fiat currency volatility during the trade tensions. U.S. oil prices also pushed higher to $71.50 despite growth concerns, lifted by geopolitical risk after Trump threatened Russia with secondary oil sanctions.
FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:
Overlay of USD vs. Major Currencies Chart by TradingView
The U.S. dollar gained ground on Monday as markets reacted to Trump’s weekend announcement of “all countries” tariffs. Early Asian hours saw broad dollar buying except against the Japanese yen, with USD/JPY dropping below 149.00 as investors sought traditional safe havens. Japan’s better-than-expected industrial production data (2.5% vs 2.3% forecast) and China’s manufacturing PMI (50.5) had limited impact on major dollar pairs.
During European trading, Germany’s CPI and import price releases briefly pressured the Greenback before it found support. EUR/USD managed minimal losses, down just 0.10%, likely supported by ECB members signaling higher-for-longer interest rates, with Panetta noting “the fight against inflation cannot be considered over.”
A notable shift occurred around the Chicago PMI release (47.6 vs 44.1 expected), which sparked a temporary dollar rally before the gains faded as Fed officials Williams and Barkin delivered mixed policy signals.
By day’s end, USD’s resilience reflected market uncertainty about tariff implementation and economic consequences ahead of Wednesday’s formal announcement. Dollar strength was most pronounced against commodity and risk-sensitive currencies, with gains of 0.62% against AUD, 0.65% against NZD, and 0.48% against CAD.
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar:
- U.K. Nationwide HPI at 6:00 am GMT
- Switzerland retail sales at 6:30 am GMT
- Spain manufacturing PMI at 7:15 am GMT
- Switzerland manufacturing PMI at 7:30 am GMT
- Italy manufacturing PMI at 7:45 am GMT
- France final manufacturing PMI at 7:45 am GMT
- Germany final manufacturing PMI at 7:55 am GMT
- Eurozone final manufacturing PMI at 8:00 am GMT
- U.K. MPC member Greene to give a speech at 8:15 am GMT
- U.K. final manufacturing PMI at 8:30 am GMT
- Eurozone CPI flash estimates at 9:00 am GMT
- Eurozone unemployment rate at 9:00 am GMT
- ECB President Lagarde to give a speech at 12:30 pm GMT
- FOMC member Barkin to give a speech at 1:00 pm GMT
- Canada manufacturing PMI at 1:30 pm GMT
- U.S. final manufacturing PMI at 1:45 pm GMT
- U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI at 2:00 pm GMT
- U.S. JOLTS job openings at 2:00 pm GMT
- U.S. ISM manufacturing prices at 2:00 pm GMT
- U.S. construction spending at 2:00 pm GMT
- U.S. RCM/TIPP economic optimism at a tentative time
- New Zealand GDT price index at a tentative time
- New Zealand building consents at 9:45 pm GMT
The European session is PACKED with PMI data and Eurozone CPI flash estimates that could drive euro volatility, especially with Lagarde speaking midday, while the pound may react to comments from MPC’s Greene.
In the U.S., all eyes will be on ISM manufacturing data, JOLTS job openings, and inflation signals from prices paid, with Barkin’s remarks potentially setting the tone for the dollar.
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