The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) meeting is on February 19. The statement is due at 2pm NZ time:
- 0100 GMT
- 2000 US Eastern time
Reuters poll, in brief:
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The Bank is expected to reduce interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) to 3.75% on February 19, according to a Reuters poll.
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Economists forecast an additional 75 bps of cuts this year, totaling 250 bps since August last year.
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The cuts aim to support an economy emerging from recession, with unemployment still rising.
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At 2.2% last quarter, inflation is within the RBNZ’s 1%-3% target range, providing room for rate cuts.
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Thirty-two of 33 economists expect a 50 bps cut, with only one predicting a 25 bps reduction.
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All major banks (ASB, ANZ, BNZ, Kiwibank, and Westpac) project a 50 bps cut.
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20 of 29 economists anticipate another 50 bps cut in April, with a median forecast of a 25 bps cut in Q3, bringing rates to 3.00% by September.
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18 of 27 respondents predict rates at 3.00% or lower by year-end, while seven expect 3.25%, and two see 3.50%.
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The total expected rate cuts of 250 bps over 17 months would exceed those by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Earlier:
And, data today:
- New Zealand Food Price Index (FPI) for January 2025: +1.9% m/m (prior +0.1%)
- Business NZ January Manufacturing PMI 51.4 (vs. prior 45.9)
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The RBNZ cash rate:
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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