Will Bitcoin Hit $1 Million? BTC Price Prediction for 2025

The
possibility of Bitcoin reaching the coveted $1 million milestone hinges
primarily on one crucial factor – the establishment of a U.S. government
strategic Bitcoin reserve1. This assessment comes from Jeff Park, Head of Alpha
Strategies at Bitwise Asset Management, who estimates the probability of such
an initiative at less than 10% for 202512.

When Will Bitcoin Hit $1
Million? Park Has the Answer

According
to Park’s latest prediction, there is a possibility that Bitcoin’s price will
hit $1 million in 2025. However, the chances are only around 10%. Why this
specific probability? He assigns the same likelihood to the potential
establishment of a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve in the United States.

The idea of a federal Bitcoin Strategic Reserve happening in 2025 is less than a 10% chance event.

That’s the only math in which Bitcoin can hit $1mm+ in 2025 when it happens.

— Jeff Park (@dgt10011) December 26, 2024

“The
idea of a federal Bitcoin Strategic Reserve happening in 2025 is less than a
10% chance event,” Park commented on X (formerly Twitter). “That’s
the only math in which Bitcoin can hit $1mm+ in 2025 when it happens.”

In a
separate post on X, he demonstrated his analysis of the probability for this
scenario to materialize.

Here is a simple illustration of how probability math works–

Bottom right looks most probable to me, ie. 2.5% chance. pic.twitter.com/KCsqHGnFMu

— Jeff Park (@dgt10011) December 26, 2024

Bitcoin Market Dynamics
and Strategic Reserve Impact

The
cryptocurrency market has demonstrated remarkable resilience, with Bitcoin
currently trading around $96,000. Park’s analysis suggests that a federal
Bitcoin reserve represents the only mathematical pathway for Bitcoin to surpass
the $1 million threshold in 2025.

Legislative Framework

Senator
Cynthia Lummis has already laid groundwork for such an initiative, introducing
draft legislation that would mandate the US Treasury to acquire 1 billion
Bitcoins over five years. This ambitious proposal has sparked intense debate
within both political and financial circles.

Market Sentiment

While Park
maintains a conservative outlook on the probability of a strategic reserve,
market sentiment appears more optimistic. Polymarket participants currently
price the likelihood of a US Bitcoin reserve at 31% for 2025.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis

On Friday,
December 27, 2024, Bitcoin is trading at $96,252 on Binance, with the price
continuing to move within the same November-December consolidation range. In my
analysis, Bitcoin is currently benefiting from a compelling support zone
defined by:

• An upward
  trendline drawn from the local minimums of mid-November (marked in red)
• The 23.6%
  Fibonacci retracement level measured from August lows to the current ATH,
  currently at $94,500
• A support
  zone marked by December’s local bottoms (marked in green)

We also
can’t overlook the proximity to the psychological level of $90,000, which
provides additional support for the current zone. When traders return from
their Christmas and New Year’s break, cryptocurrency markets should see renewed
volatility, and in my opinion, we’re likely to see a bounce from the current,
clearly established support level.

What is the current target? First, the psychological $100,000 mark and the current ATH above $108,000.

Institutional Perspectives
for BTC Price

Current Bitcoin Price
Prediction

Without the
strategic reserve catalyst, analysts from major institutions maintain more
modest projections. Bitwise’s baseline forecast suggests Bitcoin could reach
$200,000 by the end of 2025. Standard Chartered and VanEck align with similar
projections, with the latter suggesting a peak of $180,000.

“Following this first peak, we anticipate a 30% retracement in BTC, with altcoins facing sharper declines of up to 60% as the market consolidates during the summer,” VanEck’s Matthew Sigel forecasted. “However, a recovery is likely in the fall, with major tokens regaining momentum and reclaiming previous all-time highs by the end of the year.”

JUST IN: $118 billion VanEck predicts $180,000 #Bitcoin and the U.S. will embrace a Strategic BTC Reserve in 2025 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/s7lnNgkyhn

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) December 13, 2024

ETF Impact

The
cryptocurrency market has already witnessed substantial institutional interest,
with spot Bitcoin ETFs attracting over $36 billion in inflows. This trend is
expected to continue, potentially supporting price appreciation even without
government intervention.

Economic and Political
Factors

Trump Administration
Influence

The
incoming Trump administration’s stance on cryptocurrency regulation
Regulation

Like any other industry with a high net worth, the financial services industry is tightly regulated to help curb illicit behavior and manipulation. Each asset class has its own set of protocols put in place to combat their respective forms of abuse.In the foreign exchange space, regulation is assumed by authorities in multiple jurisdictions, though ultimately lacking a binding international order. Who are the Industry’s Leading Regulators?Regulators such as the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (

Like any other industry with a high net worth, the financial services industry is tightly regulated to help curb illicit behavior and manipulation. Each asset class has its own set of protocols put in place to combat their respective forms of abuse.In the foreign exchange space, regulation is assumed by authorities in multiple jurisdictions, though ultimately lacking a binding international order. Who are the Industry’s Leading Regulators?Regulators such as the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (
Read this Term could
significantly impact Bitcoin’s trajectory. The president-elect has expressed
support for the concept of a strategic Bitcoin reserve, though specific details
remain unclear.