- The ECB cut interest rates by 25-bps on Thursday after a similar move during the September meeting.
- The Eurozone economy has performed poorly compared to the US.
- Data revealed that US retail sales jumped by 0.4% in September.
The EUR/USD outlook shows increased downward pressure as European Central Bank rate cut bets surge after Thursday’s meeting. Meanwhile, the dollar held near an 11-week high against the euro amid rising bets for a Trump win and upbeat US data.
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The ECB cut interest rates by 25-bps on Thursday after a similar move during the September meeting. Although markets had fully priced the move, the outcome led to a surge in bets for future rate cuts. As a result, the euro collapsed.
The Eurozone economy has performed poorly compared to the US, putting pressure on the ECB to lower borrowing costs. At the same time, inflation in the bloc has eased to 1.8%, below the central bank’s target. Consequently, traders expect another rate cut in December and more in 2025.
Meanwhile, the US dollar rallied after an upbeat retail sales report. Data revealed that sales jumped by 0.4% in September, beating estimates of 0.3%. At the same time, core retail sales rose by 0.5% compared to forecasts of 0.1%. The upbeat figures indicated robust consumer spending and a healthy economy. Moreover, it eased bets for a November Fed rate cut while increasing the likelihood of a pause.
Meanwhile, market participants are pricing a possible Trump win during next month’s presidential election. The last time he won, the dollar rallied as traders priced in higher inflation. Therefore, there is a chance another win will boost the greenback.
EUR/USD key events today
Market participants do not expect key events today, so the pair might end the week quietly.
EUR/USD technical outlook: Renewed bearish momentum
On the technical side, the EUR/USD price is wallowing near the 1.0801 support level after reaching a new low in the downtrend. The price sits below the 30-SMA, with the RSI near the oversold region.
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Initially, the RSI had made a bullish divergence, which failed to play out. This shows that bears regained momentum. If they keep up the pace, the pair will soon challenge the 1.0801 support level. However, it might revisit the SMA before seeking new lows.
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