The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q3 quarter rose modestly to 2.1% from 2.0% prior.
In their own words:
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 2.1 percent on September 4, up from 2.0 percent on September 3. After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau, an increase in the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from -0.6 percent to 0.0 percent was slightly offset by a decrease in the nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 3.3 percent to 3.2 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Monday, September 9.
The markets have become increasingly concerned about a growth scare in the US and globally. Although 2.1% is less than the 3.0% from Q2, it is still not near a recessionary level. The US jobs report will be released on Friday.
Later today the Fed’s so-called Beige Book will be released at 2 PM ET. The Beige Book outlines the economic trends from a district by district basis and summarizes the overall economic health of the US economy. It helps to give Fed officials a summary of the economy heading into the next FOMC rate Meeting will take place on September 17 and 18th (decision at 2 PM on September 18). That spell indicated at Jackson Hole that the time has come to take out some of the restrictive monetary policy is inflation was under control and concerned about employment started to surface. In the JOLT job data today, the vacancy rate declined to a level just above where Fed’s Waller said would be indicative of more slack labor conditions.
