That opposed to a Trump victory of course, according to Goldman Sachs. The firm argues that economic output will take a hit next year under the Trump banner. And that is mostly from increased tariffs on imports and tighter immigration policies. Adding that jobs growth will also be stronger under a Democrat government as opposed to a Republican one.
“We estimate that if Trump wins in a sweep or with divided government, the hit go growth from tariffs and tighter immigration policy would outweigh the positive fiscal impulse, resulting in a peak hit to GDP growth of -0.5% in 2H 2025 that abates in 2026. If Democrats sweep, new spending and expanded middle-income tax credits would slightly more than offset lower investment due to higher corporate tax rates, resulting in a very slight boost to GDP investment due to higher corporate tax rates, resulting in a very slight boost to GDP growth on average over 2025-26.”
On the inflation front, Goldman Sachs says that a Trump win will likely lead to a rise in core inflation amid increased tariffs on auto imports from China and the EU.
