The event will take place at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia at 9pm EDT (or 0100 GMT the next day). The question is, if there is a clear winner, who will be better or worse for the dollar?
The short answer is that it isn’t going to be so straightforward.
On the one hand, Trump is more pro-business and could also clamp down hard on trade policy. Tariffs, anyone? And the latter could still benefit the dollar somewhat amid protectionism and safety flows into markets. But too much of that is also a bad thing and could harm the dollar.
And on the other hand, there’s also Trump having recently come out to want a weaker dollar and warning to the Fed not to cut rates before the election. For some context: Trump wants a weaker dollar but will he get his wish?
As for Harris, there’s the argument that her winning will be a continuation of stability amid ongoing policy arrangements. For me, that’s not really an argument on its own but let’s just try to be open a little about it, eh?
But on the flip side, there are concerns over increased spending especially. That raises more questions surrounding the fiscal status of the US and what not. So, again there are arguments on both sides.
Anyway, whatever the case is, markets will eventually find a narrative to land on. And that will be made more clear once there is a favourite going into November. That makes the debate next week a key litmus test in trying to figure out who that will be.
