Yesterday we highlighted some of the important data to keep on the radar for the US Consumer Confidence print.
Even though the headline confidence number printed a solid beat of 103.3 (above the market’s max estimates), the USD still pushed lower. Part of the reason what the data under the hood which continued to show a cooling of the US labour market.
1. Jobs hard to find continued to push higher to 16.4 from the prior of 16.0. Overlaying this with the Unemployment Rate it shows why this one matters in the current context.
jobs hard to find
2. Ratio between jobs plentiful and jobs not so plentiful fell from -15.8 to -18.0, showing further cooling.
ratio of jobs plentiful vs jobs not so plentiful
2. Ratio between present situation and future expectations. Like I mentioned yesterday, this has in past cycles been a very good warning signal for a slowdown, but it’s important to recognize that this current cycle has been like no other we’ve seen before so pinch of salt.
Ratio between present situation and expectations
So, even though the headline confidence number was solid, the picture under the hood wasn’t so pretty, and shows a further cooling in the labour market.
